Twins, Liriano aim to keep rolling in Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins had everything working on Sunday as they pulled even closer to the top spot in the American League Central.

They'll try to continue that tonight behind Francisco Liriano, who seeks a third straight winning start in the opener of a three-game series versus the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.

The Twins took three of four from the lowly Baltimore Orioles, winning Sunday's finale 10-4 to get within one game of the first-place Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. Minnesota has won four of five overall.

Jason Kubel hit the seventh grand slam of his career and Delmon Young and Jim Thome added back-to-back homers in the sixth inning for Minnesota. Nick Punto posted three of the Twins' 19 hits on the day, which was plenty of offense for Kevin Slowey. The right-hander gave up just one run and five hits over six innings.

"They're kind of clicking at the right time," Thome said of the team's pitching and hitting. "Maybe we can get on a roll like that and get going. If we take care of our own business and focus every day on what we want to accomplish, hopefully we'll be where we want to be at the end."

The Twins won despite being without four regulars on Sunday. Second baseman Orlando Hudson sat out with a right oblique strain that forced him to the disabled list following the game, while center fielder Denard Span was out due to illness. Catcher Joe Mauer and shortstop J.J. Hardy also did not start, as manager Ron Gardenhire chose to rest the two.

Liriano should at least have Mauer and Hardy back in the lineup tonight as he seeks to improve on his 8-7 record and 3.54 earned run average on the season. He snapped a four-decision losing streak with 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball versus the White Sox on July 16, then hurled seven scoreless frames of six- hit, four-walk ball versus Cleveland on Wednesday. The left-hander struck out eight batters for a second start in a row as well.

The 26-year-old Liriano is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA in nine career meetings versus the Royals, six of those starts. He faces them for the first time in 2010 tonight.

The Twins have gotten a pair of looks at tonight's starter for the Royals, Zack Greinke, and have posted eight earned runs over 10 innings in beating the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner both times. Kubel, Span and Michael Cuddyer are a combined 8-for-16 with a homer and nine RBI versus Greinke, who is 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA lifetime versus Minnesota.

The 26-year-old former first-round pick has won five of his last six decisions and bounced back from a loss to Oakland on July 16 with a victory over Toronto on Wednesday. Lasting at least seven innings for the sixth time in seven outings, Greinke notched eight innings of two-run ball versus the Blue Jays, yielding six hits without a walk while striking out nine.

Greinke, a right-hander, improved to 6-9 with a 3.59 ERA this year.

The Royals return home after losing three of four to the Yankees in the Bronx, dropping Sunday's finale, 12-6.

Kansas City's Scott Podsednik homered twice and matched a career high with four RBI, stretching his hitting streak to 12 games. Rick Ankiel added a homer for the Royals, who have lost 10 of their last 13.

Sean O'Sullivan, in his first start with Kansas City since being acquired by the franchise from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, yielded five runs over five innings of work, while the Royals' relief group was tagged for seven runs, six of those earned.

"When we were really going good, we were real successful in the back end of our bullpen down two, three runs," said Royals' manager Ned Yost. "The bullpen guys were coming in and holding and giving us an opportunity to get back in the game. That's been a problem for us lately."

The Twins have won six of nine versus the Royals this year and 14 of the last 18 meetings overall between the teams. Minnesota is also 16-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.