07/04/2009 - Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andruw Jones' three-run homer in the first inning set the tone, as Texas went on to dismantle the Rays, 12-4, in the middle installment of a three-game series.
Jones doubled in another run and Michael Young added a three-run double in the second inning for the Rangers, who have strung together four straight wins. Taylor Teagarden and Nelson Cruz each had two RBI, while David Murphy finished a home run shy of the cycle.
Derek Holland (2-5) gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings of work.
Dioner Navarro clubbed a three-run homer and Jason Bartlett also went deep for Tampa Bay, which has dropped three in a row on the heels of a season-high, seven-game win streak.
Hard-throwing David Price (2-3) couldn't make it out of the second inning, surrendering six runs on three hits and five walks while recording just four outs. The former No. 1 overall pick saw his earned run average balloon from 3.93 to 5.21.
Lance Cormier was charged with three runs in three innings of relief.
Texas jumped out to an early advantage against the erratic southpaw, pushing three runs across in both of the first two innings.
After striking out Ian Kinsler to open the bottom of the first, Price issued consecutive walks before Jones crushed a pitch to left-center for a three-run bomb.
Bartlett's solo blast put Tampa Bay on the board in the top of the second, but the Rangers struck back in the home half.
Once again, Price retired the leadoff batter on strikes, then incurred similar control problems, walking Elvis Andrus and Kinsler following a one-out double by Teagarden. Young stepped in and drove a pitch to the wall in center field, clearing the bases for a 6-1 Texas lead.
Tampa Bay had men on the corners with one away in the third. Holland, though, got Evan Longoria to ground into an inning-ending double play to foil the rally.
Teagarden's sacrifice fly widened the lead to six runs through three frames, and despite the large cushion, Holland allowed the Rays to creep back in the fifth.
Bartlett singled to start the inning and Gabe Kapler ripped a double down the left-field line to put two men in scoring position for Navarro, who lined a 1-2 fastball over the left-field wall, shrinking the deficit to 7-4.
The Rangers, however, got two runs back in the bottom of the fifth, one coming on Cruz's team-leading 20th homer of the season. Murphy tripled to deep center and scored when Teagarden stroked a base hit up the middle off Chad Bradford and past the drawn-in infield.
Texas reached double-digits in the sixth on Jones' RBI double, and tacked on two more runs in the eighth on run-scoring singles by Hank Blalock and Cruz.
Game Notes
Tampa Bay left fielder Carl Crawford has hit safely in 12 straight games...Texas is 5-3 on its nine-game homestand...Marlon Byrd scored three times for the Rangers.
<< Wang leaves game; likely to go on DL
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang left
Saturday's 6-5, 12-inning victory against the Toronto Blue Jays with a
shoulder injury, and an MRI after the game indicated he may be headed to the
disable
<< Blue Jays place P Richmond on DL
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays placed pitcher Scott
Richmond on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to July 1, with a sore
shoulder.
Richmond is 6-5 with a 3.69 earned-run average in 16 games, 13 starts,
<< Valbuena and Francisco help Indians past A's
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luis Valbuena and Ben Francisco each went 3-
for-3, with Valbuena knocking in a run and scoring twice and Francisco adding
a two-run homer in Cleveland's 5-2 win over Oakland.
Carl Pavano (7-7) evened his
<< Marlins get by Pirates
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Emilio Bonifacio went 3-for-4 with two runs
scored to help the Florida Marlins take a 5-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates
in the second game of a three-game set.
Hanley Ramirez went 2-for-4 with a two-run
Stewart wins in a firework finish at Daytona >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart won Saturday's Coke Zero 400
in a dramatic finish at Daytona International Speedway.
Stewart moved to the outside of leader Kyle Busch coming out of the final turn
of the last lap. Busch atte
Chicago moves to top of Eastern table with win at Colorado >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire moved into a tie with
D.C. United at the top of Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference table with
a 2-1 win at the Colorado Rapids on Saturday night.
First-half goals by Marco Pappa
Dynamo extend MLS lead with win at K.C. >>
Kansas City, KA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Dynamo extended their lead atop
Major League Soccer's overall table with a 1-0 win at the Kansas City Wizards
on Saturday night.
Kei Kamara scored the game's only goal in the 18th minute to h
Cunningham's brace leads FCD past New York >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Cunningham scored a pair of first-half
goals to lead FC Dallas to a 2-1 victory against the New York Red Bulls at
Pizza Hut Park on Saturday.
Cunningham scored his second goal of the season in the
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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