Phils' playoff hopes toasted after ugly loss

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 1991 Philadelphia Eagles had one of the best defenses ever assembled in NFL history. They also had a player nicknamed "Toast" for his inability to cover the deep ball.

Izel Jenkins played defensive back for the Eagles from 1988-1992 and will be remembered most for getting smoked by opposing wide receivers on a usual basis, hence the moniker "Toast." Jenkins was an excellent player at NC State and was good enough to get drafted before his career fizzled away like grass clippings in the wind.

The Phillies' chances of reaching the playoffs this year are those clippings, compared to Jenkins' ability to cover Jerry Rice in his prime in a one-on-one situation. Jenkins had a chance in 1989 at Veterans Stadium and failed, as Joe Montana and Rice were too much and scorched the Birds for almost 300 yards through the air in the fourth quarter.

Wednesday's ninth-inning of the Phillies' 9-8 loss to the Atlanta Braves can be compared to that horrible breakdown Eagles head coach Buddy Ryan's awesome defense experienced in the fourth quarter.

The Eagles owned a seemingly-comfortable 28-10 advantage in the fourth quarter against Bill Walsh's boys from the Bay, while the Braves trailed 8-6 with two outs and the bases loaded in the ninth inning, not to mention erasing an 8-2 deficit with a four-run eighth. The Eagles were stunned but actually reached the playoffs that season and lost to Jim 'Don't call me Chris' Everett and the Los Angeles Rams in South Philly.

Unfortunately for the Fightin Phils, the fight is over and there will be no postseason appearance for the first time since the 1993 squad reached the World Series. It's a shame and definitely bad for baseball in my opinion. You need teams such as the Phils, Cubs, A's, Brewers, Royals and Pirates making some appearances in October.

But those are just crazy pipe dreams.

The Phillies are now five games behind the NL East-leading New York Mets after pulling within two with a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park last week. They were riding high after that series and took the opener of a three- game set in Florida before losing the next two. Philly then dropped the first of three straight games at Atlanta and temporarily stopped the bleeding with a win in the second test on Tuesday.

We all know what happened yesterday, and the stone-cold faces in the dugout said it all. Manager Charlie Manuel wiped his brow with his sleeve and almost appeared to be crying. I'm sure he wanted to after what just happened before his very eyes. And I'm almost positive if Phillies Hall of Fame broadcaster and Ford C. Frick Award winner Harry Kalas had permission from the FCC to swear the airwaves would have been filled with more 'F' bombs than a drunken sailor.

All the expletives in the world can't save the Phillies now. With 23 games left on the schedule and two series versus the Mets and Braves, Manuel and Co. have no *$#&%&@ shot at playing in October.

WHO'S HOT

Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins needs three more triples to become the first player since Willie Mays in 1957 to record 20 or more doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases in a season.

That's pretty nice company.

Rollins has 20 hits, three homers and seven RBI over his last 10 games.

Rookie pitcher Kyle Kendrick is unbeaten in his last four starts (3-0) with a 3.28 earned run average. He had won three straight starts before posting a no decision against Atlanta on Wednesday.

WHO'S NOT

Phillies starter Adam Eaton is 0-2 in his last six starts with a 7.92 ERA. The righty, who signed with Philadelphia in the offseason for a nice wad of cash, is just 9-8 with a National League-worst 6.28 ERA over 26 starts in 2007.

ON DECK

After going 2-4 on a brief six-game road trip at Florida and Atlanta, the Phillies will head back to Citizens Bank Park to host the Marlins and Colorado Rockies during a seven-game homestand.

A perfect homestand is obviously what the Phillies need. They will also hope the NL East-leading New York Mets fail miserably on their upcoming homestand against Houston, Atlanta and Philly.

Not likely.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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