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09/28/2007 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park has attracted a field of seven including leading older thoroughbred Lawyer Ron and Preakness Stakes winner Curlin. The 1 1/4 mile event is an important test leading to the Breeders' Cup Classic with the winner gaining automatic entry to the $5 million race.
Lawyer Ron, already in the Classic with his Whitney Handicap victory, goes after his third straight win this year for owner Hines Racing. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the four-year-old will start from post six with John Velazquez again in the saddle.
The chestnut colt is coming off a win in the Woodward at Saratoga and has established himself as the top older thoroughbred this year. Lawyer Ron has career earnings of more than $2.6 million, winning half of his 24 lifetime starts.
"I think Lawyer Ron in the Whitney and the Woodward has sort of separated himself from most of the horses that are in training right now," Pletcher said. "I mean his track record in the Whitney was a superb race and the Woodward was right along with it so I mean any of the three year olds are going to have to take a step forward to get up to that level and of course a lot of them, that's what we're going to be finding out about."
Stepping up to take on older horses for the first time is Preakness champ Curlin. Coming off a disappointing third in the Haskell Invitational, the three-year-old has lost his last two starts, both as the favorite.
Robby Albarado is back to ride for trainer Steve Asmussen and will break from post five. Albarado was aboard Mineshaft to win the 2003 edition. Curlin has won four of seven career starts, all in 2007, for better than $1.9 million.
The likely third choice is Suburban Handicap winner Political Force. The four- year-old will start from post three with Cornelio Velasquez returning to ride.
Political Force is coming off a fifth place finish behind Lawyer Ron in the Woodward at Saratoga. The colt was second in the Met Mile to Corinthian when Lawyer Ron was the beaten favorite in third.
Trained by Allen Jerkens, Political Force has won four of 16 career starts for $532,232. This year he has earned $445,747 with three wins in seven starts. Jerkens won the Gold Cup in 1973 with Prove Out, 1975 with Group Plan and 1998 with Wagon Limit.
Here is the complete field for the race post position order: Brother Bobby, Stewart Elliott; Sun King, Alan Garcia; Political Force, Cornelio Velasquez; Malibu Moonshine, Channing Hill; Curlin, Robby Albarado; Lawyer Ron, John Velazquez and Indy Wind, Rafael Bejarano.
The 89th running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup has a scheduled post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et) and will be televised on ESPN.
<< Revs, Rapids to battle at Gillette
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns running back Jamal Lewis will be playing
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Ravens, pay a visit to their AFC North rivals for a Week 4 showdown.
Lewis spent his fi
<< Griese Era Begins In Bears-Lions Showdown
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears will have a new look under center when
they travel to Ford Field this Sunday for an NFC North clash with the Detroit
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Grossman
<< Colts, Broncos, Try to Maintain Division Leads
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of first-place teams will be the feature
attraction at the RCA Dome on Sunday afternoon, as the Indianapolis Colts
welcome the Denver Broncos to town in a matchup between two frequent members
of the AFC elite.
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D.C. hopes to avoid letdown against Toronto >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United will try to take another step
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a row on Saturday against Toronto FC.
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Panthers' Delhomme listed as doubtful >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme
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elbow.
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Flyers' Downie suspended 20 games >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Flyers rookie Steve Downie was suspended 20
games by the NHL on Friday for his hit on Ottawa's Dean McAmmond that gave the
center a concussion and knocked him out of action indefinitely.
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Bayern puts unbeaten mark on line against Leverkusen >>
Leverkusen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Re-tooled Bayern Munich has lived up to
expectations so far this year, going undefeated in seven games to sit atop the
standings as the class of the Bundesliga.
An offseason signing spree that included
Big 12 Conference betting odds
Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.
Work left to do:
Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.
Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.
Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.
Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
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