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03/10/2010 - Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: IndyCar. Date: Sunday, March 14. Race: Sao Paulo Indy 300. Site: Streets of Sao Paulo. Track: 2.6-mile, 11-turn temporary street circuit. Start Time: 11:00 a.m. (et). Laps: 75. Miles: 195. Television: VERSUS. Radio: IMS Radio Network/SIRIUS XM Satellite.
The IndyCar Series -- with new title sponsor IZOD -- will compete in South America for the first time with the Sao Paulo Indy 300 on the streets of Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Dario Franchitti also will begin his campaign to repeat as series champion. Franchitti ended the 2009 season with an 11-point margin over his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon. Four of his five wins last year came on road/street courses.
Seventeen races make up the 2010 IndyCar schedule, but nine of them take place on road/street circuits. The first oval race is scheduled for May 1 at Kansas -- the fifth event on the schedule.
"This year, with nine road and street courses, it's going to be very challenging," Franchitti said. "There are going to be lots of different drivers vying for wins, so we're going to have to be very focused and paying attention all the time."
In the last five years, three drivers went on to win the series championship after winning an inaugural race at a track. Dan Wheldon won the first event at St. Petersburg, FL and the series title in 2005. Dixon picked up the victory in the inaugural race at Edmonton during his 2008 championship season.
Franchitti won the first race at Iowa in 2007, the year he won his first series title. He also won both inaugural events on the '09 schedule -- Long Beach, CA and Toronto -- en route to his second championship.
Brazil will become the fourth country outside the United States to hold an IndyCar event after Canada, Japan and Australia. Canada (Edmonton and Toronto) and Japan continue to be on the schedule. The series held an exhibition race in Surfers Paradise, Australia at the conclusion of the '07 season.
Six Brazilian drivers -- Helio Castroneves, Tony Kanaan, Raphael Matos, Vitor Meira, Mario Romancini and Ana Beatriz -- will compete in front of their home crowd. Last month, all six competitors met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and then toured the 2.6-mile, 11-turn Sao Paulo street course.
"I really like the race circuit," Castroneves said. "It has two really long straightaways, and it will be great for the fans. It is going to be a challenge for our Team Penske engineers to set up the car because of the changes between road surfaces, but it's going to be fun to drive."
Romancini and Beatriz are expected to make their first IndyCar starts in Brazil. Beatriz will drive a Dreyer & Reinbold-prepared car.
"This is very special for me doing my debut in the IZOD IndyCar race at my home event," Beatriz said. "It's also very special to be the first female Brazilian race car driver to race there, and it will be a great experience."
Romancini will run a full-time schedule for Conquest Racing.
"To have my first race in my hometown, in front of all my people, family and friends, will be amazing," Romancini said. "I am very excited for this moment and for sure couldn't ask for a better place."
Takuma Sato, a former Formula One competitor and native of Tokyo, and Swiss driver Simona de Silvestro also will make their series debuts this weekend.
<< Dampier, Haywood back for Mavs; Barea out
DALLAS (AP) -Centers Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood returned to the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night against the New Jersey Nets.Dampier missed the previous 12 games with a dislocated right middle finger. Haywood sat out two games with lower b
<< Islanders C Schremp out for season
Uniondale, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Islanders announced that
center Rob Schremp will miss the remainder of the season.
The forward injured his right knee during Tuesday's game against Philadelphia.
The diagnosis is a torn m
<< Great West Conference Tournament Recaps
Orem, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Weiermiller scored 18 points and dished out
four assists to lead Texas-Pan American to a 56-53 victory over Utah Valley in
the quarterfinals of the inaugural Great West Conference Tournament.
Jared Maree ha
<< This Week in Auto Racing March 12 - 14
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While all three of NASCAR's national
touring series take a break, the IZOD IndyCar Series and Formula One kick off
their 2010 seasons this weekend. IndyCar will run on the streets of Sao Paulo,
Brazil for the
Ravens re-sign WR Mason >>
Owings Mills, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Ravens have agreed in
principle on terms of a two-year contract with veteran wide receiver Derrick
Mason.
Mason became an unrestricted free agent after his five-year contract with t
Bobcats handle Sixers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gerald Wallace led all scorers with 28
points on 9-of-10 shooting to push the Charlotte Bobcats past the Philadelphia
76ers, 102-87, at the Wachovia Center.
Stephen Jackson added 24 points and 10 reb
Sabres continue winning ways against Stars >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thomas Vanek scored the eventual game-winner
midway through the second period, as the Buffalo Sabres continued their recent
dominance over the Dallas Stars with a 5-3 victory at HSBC Arena.
The Sabres have
Fleischmann, Capitals edge Hurricanes in overtime >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Fleischmann scored with 1:40
remaining in overtime to lift the Washington Capitals to a 4-3 victory over
the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center.
In the extra session, Fleischmann hamme
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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