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09/16/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany received a little dose of reality on Friday when it was held to a 0-0 draw by England after winning the opening game of the tournament 11-0 against Argentina.
The Germans looked unstoppable in pounding the helpless South American team, but they were brought back to Earth by an England side that played them to a very even game.
The draw prevented Germany from booking a spot in the knockout round, but they should have no problem taking care of that on Monday against Japan.
The Japanese have been a very disappointing team so far despite the fact that they have taken four points from two games.
Japan needed two free kick goals from Aya Miyama, including one at the final whistle, to earn a draw with England, and then got a gift goal in the 91st minute against Argentina when the keeper spilled a bad rebound that was tapped home by Yuki Nagasato.
Star midfielder Homare Sawa has had a terrible tournament to this point, but somehow Japan still has a chance to advance to the quarterfinals.
Japan's attack has lacked creativity, which is what Sawa provides in the middle of the field. She has failed to have any impact on either game, but if Japan is to have any chance of a taking a point from Germany, that must change.
The fact that Argentina held the Asian club without a goal for over 90 minutes is a bad sign, and Japan does not figure to have the talent in attack to crack Germany's strong back line.
Outside of Sawa, there is no player who is capable of making an individual play to change the game. The only hope is for Japan to draw a free kick near the box and hope that Miyama can beat German keeper Nadine Angerer, who has looked shaky at times.
Japan has not played poorly defensively to this point, but Birgit Prinz, Sandra Smisek and Kerstin Garefrekes will certainly put them to the test.
Japan allowed England's Kelly Smith to get free for two goals, and Prinz has to be thinking about the next goal that will put her in first place on the all-time goals list in World Cup history.
She will have a good chance to set that record against Japan, which does not have the ability to shut down such a balanced attack.
Japan has been a part of all five World Cups with its appearance this year. However, it has only moved on past the group stage once, and don't expect that to happen this year either.
There is not enough talent or creativity on this Japan side to overcome such a technically strong team, and Germany will advance as expected with a good chance to defend its World Cup title.
<< Garrard leads Jaguars to comeback win over Falcons
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Garrard threw for 272 yards and a
touchdown as the Jaguars edged Atlanta, 13-7, at Jacksonville Municipal
Stadium.
Garrard completed 17-of-25 passes and added 20 rushing yards for the
<< Texans' Johnson leaves game
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson
left Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers early in the fourth quarter.
Johnson hauled in a 10-yard pass from Matt Schaub and was immediately drilled
by Ca
<< Winless England has eyes on quarterfinals
Chengdu, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England advanced to the quarterfinals in
its only other appearance in the Women's World Cup in 1995. The team is in a
great position to do so once again Monday despite the fact it has failed to
win eit
<< Rennes pulls within point of top spot
Lorient, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Etienne Didot scored his second goal of
the season as Rennes defeated Lorient, 1-0, on Sunday to climb within one
point of the top spot in France's Ligue 1.
Didot scored in the 35th minute, which
Garcia, Bucs earn surprising rout of Saints >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Garcia threw for 243 yards and two
touchdowns to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New Orleans Saints,
31-14, in a divisional matchup at Raymond James Stadium.
Garcia completed 10-of-16
Colts hold off Titans in final minute >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning threw for 312 yards with a
touchdown, but had to watch from the sideline as the Indianapolis defense
stopped a potential last-minute drive from Vince Young, as the Colts held on
for a 2
Udinese deals Juventus first loss of season >>
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Udinese gave Juventus its first loss of the
season on Sunday at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino as Antonio Di Natale scored
the lone goal in a 1-0 win.
It was a nice way to rebound from a 5-0 loss to promote
Gore scores twice as Nedney's late FG leads 49ers past Rams >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Just days after losing his mother, Frank Gore
rushed for a pair of touchdowns to guide the San Francisco 49ers past the St.
Louis Rams, 17-16, in an NFC West showdown.
Joe Nedney hit the game-deciding fiel
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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