Despite scoring slump, Tavares building foundation

Hockey Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie forwards usually take at least a season to develop into consistent performers at the NHL level.

Even in the case of No. 1 overall picks, who are expected to be stars, it usually takes a year of adjustment to the grind of the NHL's 82-game schedule before they become "difference-makers".

The past three No. 1 overall picks have all experienced the expected highs and lows during their rookie campaigns. While Chicago Blackhawks' dangler Patrick Kane (2007) and Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Steven Stamkos (2008) are currently thriving, 2009 No. 1 overall pick John Tavares of the New York Islanders is going through a rough patch.

The 6-foot-0, 195-pound center started the 2009-10 season on a high note, scoring 15 goals in his first 31 games, but since late December, his scoring touch has deserted him. The talented rookie has scored just three goals in his last 35 games ahead of the Islanders matchup with the Blues on Thursday night, with a goal in the Islanders' most recent game snapping a 17-game scoreless streak.

"I knew there would be some bumps in the road," Tavares told The Sportsbook Betting Lines earlier this week. "That is part of the process. Obviously every game I would like to do good things out there and be able to produce."

But what the 19-year-old rookie has been able to contribute during his first professional season, despite the extended scoring slump, should be enough to make the Islanders and their fans beam.

"He has continued to work out of his scoring slump," Islanders coach Scott Gordon said. "That's an important part of it. His game hasn't tailed off in other areas from his frustration in not being able to score."

Tavares has been able to work on keeping his motor running in the offensive zone, not giving up on plays while also covering the ice better, which is a big part of the center-ice position at the NHL level. While he isn't putting the puck in the net consistently, he is still at least creating chances for himself and his linemates.

"The biggest take-away is that he is allowing himself the opportunity to get better in smaller areas while he is trying to find his scoring touch," Gordon said.

"Obviously during this stretch I'm on, where things haven't really gone my way, I have learned a lot, tried a lot of different things and worked on a lot of different parts of my game, which is going to help me in the long run," Tavares said. "I know what I have been able to do my whole life and this will only help me get better as I go along. I think I have proven myself as well, that I belong here and I can contribute consistently and produce consistently. It's my first year, I'm learning a lot and it will really help me for my future."

Tavares need look no further than Stamkos for inspiration. As a rookie last season, Stamkos started off shaky before finally finding his groove toward the end of the season. The early part of the season, while rough on the youngster, helped him develop his game.

The result? Stamkos is among the NHL leaders with 41 goals scored through March 11 in this, his second season in the NHL.

"It's great seeing a guy like Steven, who I know personally, doing well after having a tough year last year," Tavares said. "He played really well the second half of the season. For me it's positive to see guys who have been in my position and succeeded."

That positive attitude not only bodes well for Tavares' future, but the Islanders, who have lacked legitimate star power for a number of years. Tavares and second-year winger Kyle Okposo give the Islanders a young duo up front who they can build around. Both players seem to have the maturity, pedigree and desire to be the go-to-guys in the near future.

"I've dealt with pressure for a long time," Tavares said. "For me it's not really new. I think it's a different type at a different level. Kyle has proven himself as a great player and I'm trying to do doing the same thing. We like that, we like being in the situation where we are relied on in situations. We want to come up with the big plays at the big times and we are excited about our future here as Islanders."

The Islanders are currently last in the Atlantic Division and second-to-last in the Eastern Conference, but with a couple horses in the stable, there is at least a glimmer of hope for the downtrodden franchise.

"You just take it one day at a time," Tavares said. "I think we are trying to improve in a lot of areas."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.