Cellar dwellers put the finishing touches on set in Cleveland

Baseball Betting Lines

07/05/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians will try to complete the three-game sweep over the Oakland Athletics this afternoon when the two teams close their series at Progressive Field.

Gio Gonzalez will head to the mound for the A's in search of his first victory of the season. The young southpaw is 0-2 with a 7.27 earned run average in four starts.

The last time he was on the bump Gonzalez surrendered three runs on seven hits in five innings of work against Detroit. Gonzalez has not fared well on the road this year, allowing seven runs on 11 hits and seven walks in just 8 2/3 innings of work.

This will be his first-ever start against Cleveland.

As for the Indians, they will turn to their ace in Cliff Lee. The reigning Cy Young Award winner has struggled of late however, going winless in his last three outings, including an 11-4 setback to Chicago back on June 30th. In the loss to the White Sox, the crafty lefty was torched for seven runs on 11 hits in just three innings of duty.

However, expect Lee to bounce back against Oakland, a team that he has dominated over the years. In eight starts against the A's Lee is 4-1 with an impressive 2.39 ERA.

On Saturday, Luis Valbuena and Ben Francisco each went 3- for-3, with Valbuena knocking in a run and scoring twice and Francisco adding a two-run homer in Cleveland's 5-2 win.

Carl Pavano (7-7) evened his record with 6 2/3 quality innings on the mound, giving up two runs on eight hits and two walks for the Indians, who won back- to-back games for the first time since June 11-12.

Grady Sizemore went 2-for-4 with a homer and two RBI in the win.

Vin Mazzaro (2-4), now winless in his last five starts, yielded five runs on 10 hits and a walk in six-plus innings for the Athletics, who have dropped eight of 10. Orlando Cabrera recorded an RBI and three of the A's eight hits.

"I left a few pitches up in the zone and they took advantage of it," Mazzaro said.

The Tribe, which last swept the A's from May 13-15 of last season, took five of nine meetings with Oakland last season, including a 4-2 mark as the host. Cleveland has won 11 of the last 15 matchups versus the Athletics at home.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.